As we move towards the end of Qtr 1 09, things seem to have stabled slightly in the media world, at 23 Media Audits we forecast in December 08 UK TV ad spend to be down by -9% in 2009, with a distinct possibility that it will be as low as -12%.(We were edging towards the 12% mark even though for some reason our gut feeling was still at 9%). The self fulfilling prophecy that the advertising market could collapse in 2009 was really beginning to take shape through estimated figures for 2009 in January and Ferbruary. However as we get closer to Spring and I for one am feeling more positive even if it is because the nights are drawing out… things feel at least a little more normal.

This is backed up by our most recent estimates showing that the forecast for 2009 is now more likely to be -10% for the UK TV Market. The most likely scenerio for TV ad spend is that we will still see steep declines in the Qtr 1 and Qtr 2 but by the end of the year in Qtr 4 advertisers who already had signed off budgets for 2009 may start entering the market again as they will be getting great value for their ad spend.

Very much like any other industry when a small bit of confidence returns and the initial investors start to see the value available in the market the confidence cycle begins and the advertisers sitting on the side start to dip back into the market.

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